Track record
What I expected, and what happened since
The main theses from my longer research pieces, followed over time. I update this list with every follow-up, including the calls that do not play out. Events, not price targets.
- Playing outdevelopments support the thesis
- Partly / Openmixed or too early
- Not yetdevelopments go against it so far
| Published | Thesis | What happened since | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Every launchpad rival that takes share from Pump loses it again.PUMP: The most underpriced cash flow in crypto? | Pump's launchpad was back at 80% of top-4 launchpad revenue in late October, up from 35% in September. Pons and StonkFun are down 97% and 94% from their peaks.As of 2 Nov, DefiLlama | Playing out |
| 16 Oct | Pump's revenue recovers toward the levels it reached before.PUMP: The most underpriced cash flow in crypto? | October was the launchpad's best month since May 2025 ($45.3M), but daily revenue slowed to $1.14M by early November as the whole launchpad market shrank.As of 2 Nov, DefiLlama | Open |
| 22 Oct | Pons and StonkFun could become interesting again if onchain activity picks up.Launchpads: revenue resilience and token valuations | Activity kept falling. Robinhood Chain revenue dropped to $21.9M in October, the last week of October was the weakest since launch, and Pons lost 89% of its revenue from September to October.As of 2 Nov, DefiLlama | Not yet |
| 27 Oct | USD.AI is a real lending business, but CHIP only gains if the company or governance sends value to the token.USD.AI: A real lending business. But does $CHIP get any of it? | One day later USD.AI proposed programmatic CHIP buys from sUSDai net interest, about $3.7M a year by my estimate. On Oct 29 it announced a $106M facility for NexGen Cloud.As of 29 Oct | Partly |
| 29 Oct | ICE and trade.xyz open a path for US TradFi flow into Hyperliquid's HIP-3 markets.Hyperliquid meets TradFi: ICE, pre-IPO markets and HYPE demand | On Nov 3 the CFTC cleared single-stock perps for US exchanges. The same day Cboe, Citadel Securities and Healthy Markets sued to overturn the approvals.As of 3 Nov | Open |
| 29 Oct | Fee models that rely on a Uniswap hook stay a fix on paper until fees show up onchain again.Stock-payout tokens on Robinhood Chain and the vampire-pool problem | INDEX restarted payouts on fixed 36-hour cycles on Nov 3. The deeper fix for bypassed volume is still in development.As of 3 Nov | Open |
| 2 Nov | Priors has to show that agents it doesn't run borrow from backers it doesn't know.Priors: can AI agent credit create value for the token? | Too early to judge, next check in two weeks.As of 2 Nov | Open |