Research note · NEAR

NEAR: lower issuance, growing buybacks. How large is the gap?

Two good things at once for NEAR: issuance is being cut and Intents revenue for buybacks keeps growing. But buybacks still cover only a fraction of new supply.

Max issuance2.5% → 1.6%HSP-029
Oct issued vs bought back~$12M vs ~$2M
Revenue growth needed~3.5xto offset at 1.6%
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Research snapshot · 29 Oct 2026 · charts through 28 Oct; governance update 2 Nov

Madaba’s model of annual NEAR issuance under a 2.5% cap versus the HSP-029 ramp to 1.6%, with cumulative issuance avoided over six years
Original chart from 29 October, based on Madaba's own issuance model.

The cut (HSP-029)

Max issuance goes from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months after a one-quarter grace period, ~12M fewer NEAR over 2 years and ~66M over 6. Staking yield drops from ~5.3% to ~3.4%. Update Nov 2: the vote passed, validators with more than 80% of stake still need to adopt the upgrade.

Intents

~$4.8B swap volume in September, up from ~$6M a month in January 2025. $7.3M in fees, $1.8M of it as revenue for NEAR buybacks.

The gap

In October ~$12M of new NEAR was issued versus ~$2M bought back. Even at 1.6% and the price at the time, revenue would need to grow ~3.5x to offset issuance.

Monthly modeled NEAR issuance in dollars alongside NEAR Intents user fees and protocol revenue from November 2025 through 28 October 2026
Original comparison of issuance, user fees and retained revenue. New NEAR is valued at the monthly average price. October covers 1–28 October. Sources: DefiLlama and Madaba’s issuance calculation.
Monthly NEAR Intents swap volume from January 2025 through 28 October 2026, including September’s $4.8B record
Original NEAR Intents monthly-volume chart. September reached approximately $4.8B; the October bar is a partial month through 28 October. Source: DefiLlama.

Updates since publication

  1. HSP-029 passed with 100% of votes. Security Council veto window until Nov 16, validators still need to adopt the upgrade. Intents closed October with $2.19M for NEAR buybacks, a new monthly high.

    Post on X ↗

Sources & related reading

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